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        5月份農副產品價格有漲有跌 蔬果肉蛋價格走勢如何

        2019年06月10日 09:34 來源:經濟日報 參與互動 

          5月份農副產品價格有漲有跌,但總體仍處于高位——

          蔬果肉蛋價格走勢如何

          經濟日報·中國經濟網記者 黃俊毅

          近來,受天氣和供給等因素影響,蔬菜、瓜果、豬肉、雞蛋等農副產品價格持續高位運行,引起了廣泛關注。果蔬肉蛋價格未來是否仍會繼續上漲?供應能否保持穩定?相關專家表示,預計下半年全國蔬菜價格將季節性加速下行,瓜果價格后期將逐漸趨于回落,雞蛋供應總體寬松,價格不具備上漲基礎——

          最近一段時間,城鄉居民菜籃子里的蔬菜、瓜果、豬肉、雞蛋等農副產品價格持續高位運行,引起了極大關注。隨著夏季來臨,這些果蔬肉蛋價格走勢會發生變化嗎?還會強勢上行嗎?針對這些大眾關心的問題,經濟日報·中國經濟網記者采訪了相關專家。

          蔬果肉蛋價格處于高位

          “全國蔬菜價格正處于季節性下行階段,5月份回落速度有所加快,但價格較往年同期水平偏高。”中國農業科學院農業信息研究所研究員孔繁濤介紹說。

          據農業農村部信息中心發布的全國重要批發市場蔬菜大宗批發價格計算,3月份,重點監測的28種蔬菜平均批發價格開始季節性下跌,環比下降0.6%,但降幅明顯小于往年;4月份環比下降6.6%,跌幅增大,但同比增長18.7%,影響CPI上漲約0.43個百分點;5月份環比下降8.6%,跌幅進一步增大,但同比漲幅達近10年同期高點,價格較近3年同期平均值高18.4%。

          相對于蔬菜價格加速回落,5月份全國瓜果、雞蛋價格漲幅明顯。

          “目前,水果批發均價處于近5年的高點。”中國農業科學院農業信息研究所農業產業安全團隊副研究員武婕介紹說,5月份農業農村部重點監測的6種水果批發均價為每公斤7.49元,環比上漲19.3%,同比上漲33.8%。其中,鴨梨、富士蘋果、西瓜、巨峰葡萄、菠蘿、香蕉同比分別上漲1.2倍、66.0%、22.2%、11.6%、11.0%、10.4%。

          中國農業科學院農業經濟與發展研究所副研究員、國家蛋雞產業技術體系產業經濟研究室骨干成員朱寧表示,5月份雞蛋價格同比、環比漲幅都比較大。數據顯示,5月份全國雞蛋平均價格為每公斤8.87元,環比增長14.6%,同比增長14%。

          值得注意的是,5月份全國豬價一改之前的快速拉升走勢,表現為高位震蕩,雖然同比價格漲幅較大,但環比價格總體變化不大。數據顯示,5月份全國豬肉平均價格為每公斤24.71元,環比漲0.5%,同比漲26.6%;生豬平均價格每公斤14.98元,環比跌0.3%,同比漲41.7%。

          從數據來看,雖然5月份蔬菜、瓜果、豬肉、雞蛋等農副產品價格有漲有跌,但總體仍處于高位。

          價格高位運行根在供給

          農業農村部蔬菜市場分析預警團隊首席分析師張晶表示,菜價之所以保持較高水平,主要是受去年冬季菜價偏低影響,今春蔬菜種植面積有所回調。農業農村部數據顯示,580個蔬菜生產重點縣信息監測點3月底在田蔬菜面積為107萬畝,同比減少2.2%。同時,冬春蔬菜主產區受“倒春寒”和持續陰雨寡照影響,導致蔬菜生產進度推遲,造成菜價居高不下。

          據介紹,近期瓜果價格過快上漲的一個重要原因是存儲類水果富士蘋果和鴨梨的價格創歷史新高。

          武婕表示,蘋果和梨約占我國水果總產量的三分之一,這兩種大宗水果因災減產,庫存偏低,其價格上漲帶動了水果整體價格上漲。此外,5月份是水果青黃不接期,作為存儲類水果的消費替代品、能穩定果價的豐產柑橘退市,桃、葡萄等其他大宗水果品種未到集中上市期,新產季荔枝等部分熱帶水果減產,導致當前水果市場供應偏緊。“目前,水果價格上漲符合水果價格在一季度、二季度處于相對高位,三季度處于低點的季節性波動規律。”武婕說。

          雞蛋價格竄高原因也在供給側。數據顯示,2018年10月份至2019年3月份,全國雞蛋零售價格連續下跌。“持續6個月的雞蛋價格下跌,導致蛋雞養殖盈利區間逐漸縮小,削弱了蛋雞養殖主體對市場行情的信心,雞蛋主產區陸續淘汰蛋雞,新補欄蛋雞尚未開產,造成4月份及5月份前半個月雞蛋供給偏緊、雞蛋價格上漲。”朱寧說。

          豬價波動則是受非洲豬瘟疫情和供需分化影響。數據顯示,1月份至4月份,規模以上生豬屠宰企業屠宰量7423.24萬頭,同比減少8.0%。中國農業科學院農業信息研究所副研究員、農業農村部國際畜產品生產和貿易首席專家朱增勇表示,今年一季度全國生豬存欄37525萬頭,是1992年以來的最低水平,這說明豬價2月份開始的反彈主要是受供給不足影響。

          蔬果肉蛋對CPI影響將減弱

          對于大眾關心的蔬果肉蛋價格走勢變化,以及對CPI的影響等問題,受訪專家均表示,下半年蔬果肉蛋對CPI影響將減弱。

          “預計全國蔬菜價格將季節性加速下行。”孔繁濤說。首先,今年冬春季未出現極端天氣,雖然生產進度有所推后,但蔬菜生產恢復較快,供應有保障。其次,蔬菜生產逐步由冬春模式轉為夏季模式,露地蔬菜成為主流,地產蔬菜豐富,生產和運輸成本整體降低。此外,春節后我國大部分地區出現長時間低溫寡照天氣,華中、華北地區大田蔬菜上市時間普遍延后半個月到1個月,如今前期推遲上市的蔬菜將集中大量上市。

          “從全年來看,蔬菜整體價格或與去年持平或略高。”張晶提醒廣大蔬菜種植戶,雖然今春蔬菜種植面積有所減少,但受前期高價影響,下半年部分品種擴種意愿較強,秋冬及后期蔬菜供應有保障,且價格下行壓力增大,需要理性決策,防范市場風險。

          “瓜果價格雖然漲幅較大,但基本符合季節性波動規律,后期將逐漸趨于回落。”武婕認為,隨著氣溫升高,各地時令瓜果如西瓜、甜瓜、桃、杏、櫻桃等上市量逐漸加大,水果市場供應偏緊的局面將逐漸好轉,部分水果價格將趨于下降。預計6月份至9月份,西瓜將成為瓜果市場的主力軍,價格將持續走低。蘋果、梨等存儲類水果整體供應不足,加上存儲環節受今年漲價影響對利潤率的預期比較高,成本上升,預計價格可能將持續高位運行。但是,隨著時令水果上市量加大,消費替代明顯增強,預計后期其價格繼續大幅上漲的可能性不大,瓜果價格下半年對CPI的拉動將顯著減弱。

          下半年雞蛋價格是否會繼續上漲?朱寧表示,下半年雞蛋供應總體寬松,價格不具備上漲基礎。實際上,5月底全國雞蛋價格已明顯下降。農業農村部監測數據顯示,2019年5月23日以后,我國雞蛋價格持續回落,下降幅度達7%

          比較令人擔憂的是豬肉價格。農業農村部監測數據顯示,全國生豬存欄量降幅呈擴大趨勢。4月份同比降幅擴大至20.8%,較上月增加2個百分點。朱增勇表示,6月份生豬供給將會較上年同期明顯下降。下半年全國豬肉平均價格同比漲幅可能達到30%至40%之間。同時,他認為,雖然豬肉價格上漲將帶動CPI上漲,但貢獻率將會穩中略降。

          黃俊毅

        【編輯:張燕玲】
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